But for the recent pre-election
intrigues at Maharashtra, the BJP had over the years, perfected the art of
being ‘ditched’ by its so-called allies. So strong was BJP’s sense of
self-flagellation that multiple kicks by Mayawati in UP, Mamata in Bengal and
Jayalalitha in Tamil Nadu only heightened the urge of its leaders to be once
again held in embrace by these parties, even when fully knowing the fate that
would follow such alliances. Before Nitish, guided by the delusion of ruling
India in 2014 itself, pulled out from the NDA, the BJP had begged, groveled, crawled,
swallowed all indignities, parted with Lok Sabha seats, Rajya Sabha berths, in
short, continued to act like a traditional Indian wife in an abusive marriage
before the inevitable happened. Yet, all those snubs fall short of the divorce
masterstroke played by Naveen Patnaik just before 2009 elections. While the BJP
continued to press for its original share of seats, Naveen kept up the charade
of bargaining to increase his seat share, as in his words – the BJD had gained strength
owing to which ground realities had changed’, before pulling out of the
alliance just days before the elections. To say that the BJP was nettled would
be an understatement. Smug in its belief that the BJD would need its support in
the post-election scenario, the BJP unleashed a vituperative campaign, even
alleging Naveen’s involvement in the barbaric assassination of Swami Laxmananand
Saraswati the year earlier, with some leaders even proclaiming in public
rallies that the soul of departed saint would ensure that 2009 is Naveen’s Waterloo.
Well,
the electorate thought otherwise. Naveen won a large majority single handedly
and the BJP was reduced to single digits in the assembly, a situation which has
only marginally improved even 5 years later. So clinically successful was
Naveen’s severance in 2009 that even now the secularists celebrate it while the
BJP continues to nurse a deep grudge against Naveen and even Pyari Mohan Mahapatro,
the then architect of that divorce.
Given
its experiences, it was quite ironical to see the BJP adopting Naveen’s book
while shrugging off Shiv Sena as an inconvenient partner. The similar claims of
higher seat share, the same sham of negotiations, the same last minute desertion, similar poaching of candidates from other parties, wholesale
intake of office bearers across constituencies where the BJP’s presence was
weak, (though not on a scale as big as Naveen). What was additional was
confabulations with the enemy – Sharad Pawar, who seems to end up holding some
or the other aces in all elections. It will be foolhardy to dismiss the
likelihood that BJP dumped the Sena only after Pawar assured that it would do
the same with Congress. Just notice how both the alliances came apart within
hours of each other and even post election, NCP barely took time to declare its
support to the BJP. Further, it is difficult to visualise that people as canny
as Amit Shah and Narendra Modi would have run the risk of running a solo
campaign against a Congress-NCP alliance, which even in its most discredited
state, together command a vote share higher than that BJP.
Anyway,
like Orissa 2009, Maharashtra 2014 too proved that people are hardly bothered
with esoteric ideas like ‘betrayal’. So, even though it did not win an outright
majority, it won enough to prove that it had indeed become decisively bigger
than its erstwhile partner.
The
similarities stop here. Unlike the BJP in Orissa, Sena was not decimated in
Maharashtra. Not only did it protect most of its strongholds, it gained
vote-share and seats to emerge as the second largest entity in Maharashtra. Further,
while it is difficult to visualise Naveen seeking Congress support (and Congress
reciprocating) had he fallen short, the BJP had no qualms in visibly embracing
support of a party which large segments of Maharashtrians see as epitome of
corruption and misrule. Add to that the reaction of BJP supporters. Those very
people who had nothing but the choicest abuses for Naveen see no wrong in
similar acts getting committed against its oldest ally. Lastly, while the angry
BJP reconciled itself to an opposition role in Orissa, the Shiv Sena, is
acting like the BJP would, when Maya, Mamata and Jaya were concerned. Probably
it has something to do with the Hindu Nationalistic DNA of both the parties that
make them act thus. Yet, the cringe-inducing behaviour of Sena has only
succeeded in lowering its prestige in the eyes of the world.
While
there are many reasons why Balasaheb and his bunch of Sainiks came to occupy a
special place in the hearts of Maharashtrians, one aspect which defined
Balasaheb, and by extension, the Sena, was his bravado backed by stubborn
adherence to stands once taken, howsoever, politically incorrect they would be.
Sena under Balasaheb was akin that neighbourhood toughie, who even with all his
vices, is loved because the toughie is a man of his word, of conviction, is
available on call and protects the neighbourhood in his own not-so-civil
ways. Today, even though Uddhav has managed to score a victory of sorts, having
held on to his forts and decisively reclaiming his father’s legacy from his
usurper cousin, he is a much diminished leader. He is seen at most like a
Maratha sardar of the olden days, who would swallow every indignity to curry
some favours from the Delhi Sultanate. Why should people be blamed if they
think so – is not the party of late Balasaheb reduced to a pathetic state of
begging for invitations to oath taking ceremonies, of beseeching all
influencers to gain a foothold in the state government, of any number of
inconsequential ministries? This is a party where while at one time, Chhagan
Bhujbal, the strongest strongman Sena has known, had to go virtually
underground to escape Sainik’s wrath for deserting the party. Today, a
political featherweight like Suresh Prabhu can join the central ministry,
ostensibly on the Sena’s quota, without as much as a hello, thank you, from
Uddhav!
Just what prevented Uddhav from pulling out of the NDA when
the BJP so unceremoniously dumped it? What is it that keeps Uddhav hoping that
the BJP would finally agree to take him in? Even if it does, will it be worth
the immense harm it has already inflicted and will further inflict on the Sena’s
image? Just what does it want? Play the role of an effective opposition or
continue with its pusillanimity, hoping for crumbs from the BJP?
Let’s not think even for a moment that having tasted power on
its own strength, the BJP would ever be willing to sup with Sena as even equal
partners ever. They don’t need to. People have spoken. Yet, since both the Sena
and the BJP tap a common voter-base for support, the BJP will try its level
best to further shrink Sena, if possible to the point of oblivion or at least,
to an inconsequential rump. Currently, the BJP holds the maximum number of MLAs
from Mumbai, the heart of Sena. Why would the BJP agree to contest the coming
civic elections as a junior partner of Sena? And if they fight even as equal
partners, it would be a de jure acceptance of Sena of its diminished
role in Maharashtra. As an opposition, the Sena stands a stronger chance of
withstanding BJP’s onslaught. Not only will it be immune from the charges of
commission and omission which will stick to it even if it supports the BJP from
outside, it has potential to occupy more of the opposition space ceded by a
receding Congress and those sections of the population which have a strong
affinity to Hindutva related politics.
It is a sad commentary on the partisan nature of our politics
that forget core BJP supporters, even traditional opponents of the BJP have
found nothing objectionable in the NCP-BJP live-in. The BJP has every reason to
thank NCP. Had it not been for its corruption, the public mood against the
State Government may not have been that strong. Had it not been for Pawar’s
assurances, the BJP might not have been able to cut Sena to size. But for its
brazen support to its Government, the BJP would still have had to make amends
with Shiv Sena. But, an alliance with Pawar, howsoever covert it might be, only
damages the BJP’s sheen. An indulgent public may turn the blind eye today.
Tomorrow, nothing stops them from declaring it as dyed in corruption as the ‘Naturally
Corrupt Party.
Moving from Maharashtra, even though the BJP dumped Kuldeep
Bishnoi’s Haryana Janhit Party too, the two dumping instances (Sena and HJC)
are very different from each other. While agreements need to be honoured, they
are entered into with an underlying assumption of the partner’s strenght. HJC even
though bouyed by the Modi wave, miserably failed to display any strength in the
Lok Sabha polls, with Bishnoi too losing his seat. Add to that HJC’s flirting
with other parties (including Congress) tenuous connect with the NDA and a
proclivity to run an independent campaign, BJP can be little faulted in parting
ways from a vacuous, unreliable ally. The Sena’s case is different. Not only
was the alliance old, it was based on a clear understanding of role of the
larger party getting swapped in assembly and parliamentary elections. Even
more, the Sena performed credibly well in the Lok Sabha elections too, proving
that it was a worthy partner as far as electoral stakes were concerned.
Anyway, all analysis are passe. Uddhav has to decide –
whether to uphold the Sena legacy and continue a tough, solitary struggle or
get reduced to a political cipher in its thirst for immediate fruits of office.
