The battle is not won yet!

Indian history is replete with tales where the Indian army seemed on verge of a victory just before some event decisively changed the course of the war. Sometimes it was sheer bad luck, at times bad strategy and in a few instances, complacency. Nothing could illustrate Indian complacency better than the image of Rama Raya directing the Vijayanagara – Bahmani war (Battle of Talikota, 1965) in a luxurious palanquin, right in the battlefield. The inevitable happened. Mobility severely hampered, Rama Ray was caught and decapitated by the Bahmani forces (some accounts say that he was burnt while still half alive) and glory of the Vijayanagara Empire was snuffed forever.

Closer home and in a totally unrelated field, we have been made to believe as to how Milkha Singh lost out on an Olympic medal on account of lessening his speed/looking back, inspite of leading the first lap. At more personal levels, each one of us, at some or the other point in life, would have witnessed a proverbial ‘slip in between the cup and the lip’.

If the above proverb holds true, then why would the BJP leadership embark on an electoral strategy which might lead to their doom again? It would seem that having succeeded in capturing the pole position or at least in public perception, the BJP seems to have started believing that the battle is already won. Howsoever well placed its confidence might be, a handful of factors might still result in the final results being very different from the party’s expectations.

·    Modi: Make no mistakes. The BJP’s perceived lead is a result of Modi’s leadership. A spell of ‘collective leadership’ or the image of a karate chop wielding LK Advani would have excited the people the way it did in 2009!. Yet, the focus on Modi has meant that rather than the issue being why Congress/UPA should be kicked out, the central issue of these elections is now Modi. At one level, while this may enthuse the faithful, at another plane it may make the undecided voter and the fencesitter forget that these elections are an opportunity to punish the Congress for its sins and an opportunity to rescue India from the mess she has been placed in. These voters, when bombarded with allegations seeking to puncture holes in the Gujarat growth story, on Modi’s vision, his suitability for the PM’s post, is more likely to develop a skepticism of Modi and miss out on the reality that while Modi may be not be the most optimal option, will a Rahul, a Mamata, a Jayalalitha, a Mulayam, a Laloo, a Chidambaram, or any other Manmohan/Gujaral clone, even remotely be a better option? How long will people remember that a vote against Modi, be it to any party, would in effect mean a vote for sustaining the disaster the Nation has been facing for the last one decade! After all, the BJP still does not have a slogan for Modi which could resonate as well as “Main kehti hoon – Garibi hatao. Woh kehte hain Indira hatao”!

Unidimensional Image: The entire campaign around Modi has been focused on painting him as a decisive leader. What we see from posters is the image of a man smirking, seelingly focused but carrying a haughty demeanour.

Worldwide, even dictators do not project a single persona. Totalitarian states like China and North Korea direct huge efforts in promoting their leaders as having a well-rounded personality – people who are decisive and firm but still blessed with warm human qualities. Indira Gandhi was not seen as a Durga alone. She was also seen as Indiramma by millions. For the Congress, we have a campaign built around the humane aspects of a photogenic fair-skinned Rahul Gandhi. Can it really be said that many, particularly the women, the elderly and the villagers, will not be attracted by the image of a Rahul Gandhi of soulful eyes and emotional bearing when compared to a smug looking Modi?

Does it really take that much to project a smiling, a laughing Modi, mingling with children, the women and the elderly, not as a speaker on a podium, but on equal terms? If this seems a stretch – well, Indians have a fetish for symbolism and imagery. The person who understood it the best is still deified as the Father of our Nation!

·     Turncoats galore: Historically, the BJP has seen 3 phases of ingress within its ranks. The first was in 1991, when riding high on its 1989 electoral performance and the 1990 Rath Yatra, it seemed to promise a new means of Governance. The second was in 1998, when the Congress seemed doomed to oblivion and the BJP was seen as the party whose moment had arrived. The third phase was 2004 when the NDA seemed poised to return to power. It is interesting to note that except for a few, most who joined the BJP in the early 90s have either retired or do not hold important positions within the party any longer. Whether it is a result of the party’s dilution of its ideology or a combination of other factors, is not known. Leaders who joined in the late 90s continue to be in the party and hold important roles, moulding its viewpoints / mode of governance. Interestingly, quite a few of those who joined in 2004, silently and not so silently, left the party when they realized that the Congress was here to stay. These were the people who were purely creatures of power and would move wherever they could cling to it. A BJP in opposition was hardly a good enough option for them.

Like any organization seeking to grow big, a political party too, has to tap both organic and inorganic sources. Hence, there is nothing wrong in the BJP absorbing erstwhile rivals in its ranks. However, a line has to be drawn when these erstwhile rivals are of the likes of those who have joined the party in the last few weeks. Some of them are:

• Ramkripal Yadav – a life-long secularist who had nothing but abuse for BJP all along. The only reason he has joined the party was denial of an election ticket to him
• Udit Raj – This self-proclaimed leader of Dalits has been in news only on account of his tirades against Hinduism, the RSS, the BJP and so on. A person devoid of any electoral base, what exactly does this anti ideologue bring to the BJP’s table?
• Satpal Maharaj – if the Uttarakhand BJP was short of factions, we now have the 10, Janpath ultra-loyalist Satpal Maharaj in the BJP now. A lifelong Congressman, he left the Narasimha Rao led Congress along with ND Tiwari, demanding to make Sonia Gandhi the Congress President and Prime Minister. A religious leader with large following, he has been at loggerheads with the BJP on both political and ideological issues
• Jagdambika Pal – a political lightweight, who was anointed as the UP CM by Romesh Bhandari. Has usually had only the choicest of abuses for the BJP 

The above notings are only illustrative as the intent here is not to make a list of people who should not have been in the BJP. The issue on absorbing turncoats is two pronged:

Are those who have toiled for years for the party subordinated to those who only had expletives for the BJP till the other day? Can it really be expected that a voter would not be disgusted by the sight of a Ramkripal Yadav standing on a BJP ticket? Will the committed BJP voter really vote for him?

While a Jaswant Singh may not be the greatest of political assets for the BJP, can there be any doubt that he is a much better BJP candidate than a Sona Ram who had lost even the assembly elections. Forget the voter, can the BJP/RSS worker really have heart to work for a Sona Ram or a Satpal Maharaj’s victory when he sees leaders, who had been with him for years being sidelined and humiliated for the sake of those who had little standing even in their own parties?

·     Voter outreach: Compared to the 2004 and 2009 elections, the BJP certainly seems to have improved its voter outreach. However, it seems to be relying a little too heavily on three factors – Modi rallies, online campaign and the RSS. However, this skewed focus on high visibility campaign modes may not necessarily result in desired results. The reasons are simple. Rallies are attended by the party cadre, the committed, the curious and the paid. Modi rallies have achieved what they could, i.e., a strong buzz in favor of the party. However, not only is the reach of rallies limited, they do not cover the last mile, i.e., of ensuring that even the rally attender actually ventures out to vote. As regards online campaigns, except for segments A & B of the society, does it really reach the voter in an effective manner? Certainly, the impact of online campaigns in city segments could be high. But while they will reach the voter in an Akola or a Rourkela, will it create an impact enough to reach a critical mass of voters? As regards RSS, well! Where they are known, its swayamsevaks are seen more as social workers and are not necessarily people who can influence voting choices. Also, given their very nature of training within the RSS, it is difficult for them to be engaged in ferreting people from their homes to the polling booth, on the day of the voting.

Unlike the Marxists and the caste identity based parties, the support base of the BJP are politically conscious part time alone. The summer heat, prospect of a day’s rest or simple household chores may be motivator enough for many of the supporters to feel that they have completed their duties by pressing a ‘like’ button on Facebook or engaging in an online spat with some rival party supporter.

One misses the zeal and enthusiasm which the RSS/VHP/ BJP workers displayed in mobilizing support in the elections of 1991, 96, 98 and 99. It is these people who ensured that latent support was translated to votes. The model was simple – continuous communication and aggressive follow up till the vote was cast on the election day. Indian elections are won and lost at booths. If the BJP’s campaign does not manage to make its supporters come out and vote, there will be a large mis-match between expectations and actual performance.

  

Some BJP leaders might be salivating at the prospect of the party ending with 160-180 seats, which would rule Modi out and give them a shot at power. This may have prompted handing over of tickets to many who stand no chance at the hustings. What such leaders may not realize is that today’s Congress with even 140 seats is much better placed to form a Government as compared to a BJP with 180 seats. A third stint in the opposition will ring a death knell to the BJP as a National Party. Like the Janata parivar, it will disintegrate into numerous regional parties, leaving only the Congress with a pan India presence. Even more importantly, does India have any more capacity to absorb any more blows, existential blows which are certain corollary to a UPA 3 or a 3rd Front Government?