Is the BJP losing its momentum?

Behavioral scientists have many a times noted that human beings tend to attribute success to one’s own efforts while blaming every possible factor (other than the self) for any failure. Like any other aspect of human behavior, this tendency too is not without exceptions. At the same time, these exceptions, when people rise above their frailties and share credit of success and own blame for failures are rare indeed. It is hence, not without reason, that individuals who display such behavior in a consistent manner and considered a class apart among their peers.

Likewise, human psyche is wired to accept tidings which seem favorable and discount omens when they deem unfavorable. History is replete with instances where a people had to pay the price for ignoring dire tidings of doom.

As a rule, political parties across the world, tend to accept findings of opinion polls only when they favor them. This approach of trashing an unfavorable poll cannot really be faulted for not only have polls proved erroneous on numerous occasions, accepting the validity of opinion polls as a given would ipso facto do away with the need to conducting real elections altogether.

Yet, in spite of all limitations associated with opinion polls, political parties of all hues rely on them heavily, if for nothing, they do provide a window on the prevailing sentiment. Given their utility, it is quite strange to witness a scenario where the BJP seems to be ignoring / dismissing the warning messages being delivered by the current set of opinion polls.

A consistent trend while all the polls across Jan, Feb and March 2014 have thrown up, is the stunting of the BJP/Modi wave. In state after state, particularly Bihar, the projected vote share of the BJP is either slipping or barely holding. Even at the risk of being called an alarmist, I would submit that something, somewhere, of the BJP’s electoral strategy is not working. The Modi wave was supposed to continuously gain strength till the last vote was cast. Here, it would seem that the BJP plateaued in January and the consistent attacks from all its opponents is gradually, but steadily chipping away on its gains. While the latter conclusion may still be questioned by the faithful, can it not be conclusively said that no further support is accruing to the party. After all, if the polls were kosher when they showed the party going from strength to strength, they cannot become treyf only because they are not as positive any longer.

In 2004, when elections were initially announced, the BJP was expecting to easily cross the 200 seat mark on its own. Almost all opinion polls projected a spectacular return for the NDA. However, as the elections progressed, the number kept on declining. Yet, when the NDTV published a 255-260 seats projection for the NDA, it was simply dismissed by the BJP. It cannot be possible that the top leadership were completely indifferent to the public mood. AB Vajpayee’s declaration that there was no difference in between the SP and the BJP was nothing if not the BJP veteran’s uneasy reaching out to the SP for support in case the NDA fell short of the majority. Yet, while Vajpayee may have felt the undercurrent, the BJP as a whole was impervious to any idea that it could lose. We know what the final results were. 

Even otherwise, the most positive opinion polls need to be viewed conservatively. A case in point would be the projections in Uttar Pradesh. For the last many elections, all opinion polls have consistently projected BJP performing better than what the final results have been. At the same time, hardly has any poll captured BSP's strength. If the trend holds true even this time, the projected BJP performance of 40 seats may turn out to be a measly 25! From where will the gaps be filled then?

If our Nation has to be delivered from the mess of the last 10 years, the ruling party needs to be in a comfortable majority. A BJP with 180-190 seats will be anything but comfortable. For those who forget, NDA 1 was led by a 182 seat BJP, but was hobbled by the AIADMK. For that matter, even 210-220 seats are 62-52 seats less than the majority, a number which cannot be reached with the current set of allies. The BJP owes it to the Nation to provide fresh impetus to its engine which seems to be slowing down. It cannot behave as if it has won the elections already. If it behaves like the victor, people will vote on the merits-demerits of Modi alone and not on the merits-demerits of the UPA. Why should the misdeeds of the UPA be allowed to become a distant memory when those misdeeds, when effectively highlighted, can by themselves provide much of the fuel required for the final lap. Further, victories become difficult to achieve when you substitute your foot-soldiers with mercenaries. Have mercenaries by all means, for they provide the effective force multiplier. But, please do not make the mistake of imagining those people as your core supporters.

The first vote is yet to be cast and it is still a long race. Can the BJP really afford to relax and not take corrective actions, when very clearly, its lead over the competitors is shrinking?