Na-Re Modi

That Modi is a polarizing figure is a self evident truth. What is not so clear is the reason this man has been demonized so much. Gujarat has had a history of ghastly communal riots and the carnage of 2002 still pales when compared to the 1969 Ahmedabad riots which were triggered by massacre of cows and temple priest’s alongwith attack on Rath Yatra. Even otherwise, more than a quarter of casualties in the riots were Hindus, clearly indicating that it was far, far from a much abused word ‘pogrom’ and with due respect to the unfortunate dead, our intelligentsia should study Rwanda, Cambodia, Yugoslavia or our own medieval and modern history (partition) to understand what the genocide or a pogrom means.

Still, the image of Modi as the ‘Hindu Hriday Samrat’ was justified to the extent that he was aggressive with regards to the cause of the riots and even otherwise, the aggressive campaign of the NGO –ECI brigade resulted in a consolidation of Nationalist forces behind Modi, so much so that even the Congress did not fight the election on the plank of riots. Very soon, however, it became amply clear that Modi had little sympathies for Hindutva, in spite of his life long career in the RSS. Not only were the VHP office bearers marginalized, very soon, people started finding themselves behind bars in riot related cases. Not only were the likes of Keshubhai Patel and Rana pushed to margins, erstwhile foot soldiers like Gordhan Zadaphia became sworn enemies of Modi. Modi’s impatience with a Hindutva agenda became all the more clear when, on his orders, municipal authorities demolished scores of temples but left mosques and dargahs untouched, after outbreak of Muslim violence in Vadodara. It is indeed a miracle, that the VHP, which had active units in each of Gujarat’s 10,000 odd towns and villages till a decade back, seems like a spent force today.

Yet, in spite of having marginalized the RSS and its affiliates, including the powerful Bharatiya Kisan Sangh, Modi won a spectacular mandate once again in 2007. This mandate indicated that the mass’s adoration of Modi had moved beyond his macho image to his development mantra. Today, with almost everyone signing paeans to Modi’s commitment to development, it would be churlish to deny that Modi has emerged as a formidable champion of developmental politics. To say that Gujaratis’ have always been industrious and that Modi has no role to play in development simply indicates an envious mindset for if nothing else, the ever-conscious of profits Gujarati would be more aware than you and me if Modi had indeed made a difference to their pursuit of prosperity.

Interestingly, in we look at the 2007 elections dispassionately, we will find that the elections were considered tough for him on account of the strident anti Modi position taken by the VHP, formation of the rebel BJP, by the dissents led by Gordhan Zadaphia and the presence of Uma Bharti’s Lok Janshakti, which managed to attract a significant number of sitting MLAs as candidates for the coming polls. However, as elections neared, Ashok Singhal declared that he had no differences with Modi and said VHP would campaign for Hindutva leaning candidates, Uma Bharti withdrew her candidates (though some still fought as independents) and silently, the RSS volunteers campaigned for Modi and Modi alone. Why did it happen? After suffering marginalization and insults for 4 years, it was probably a right time for the Sangh to show Modi that the latter was not indispensable and his dreams of ruling Gujarat hinged on the support of those he had been dismissing as the rustic cousins. However, nothing of this sort happened and Modi was blessed with Sangh support yet again. In all likelihood, the Sangh would have calculated that for a party demoralized with loss of power in 2004 General Elections and facing ideological confusion post Advani’s attempts to turn secular, the loss of Gujarat would have been a body blow to the morale of its activists. Maybe, there was some other commitment of Modi to ‘mend’ his way which became the deciding factor for Sangh to throw its weight behind the son who had wandered, rather than attempting a ‘cutting the nose to spite the face’ act.

To be fair to Modi, while the RSS, the VHP and numerous other Sangh Parivar affiliates continue to be marginalized in Gujarat, there had not been any open confrontation between his Government and others. That an open dissident like Dr Kanubhai Kalsaria still continues as a BJP MLA, probably would indicate that some sort of arrangement between Modi and the Sangh had been in place.

However, Modi’s antics in the last few weeks seem to indicate the limitations of such truces. Frankly, for an ambitious man like Modi, anything less than the Prime Ministership would be an affront to his own perception of his capabilities and indispensability and like his one time mentor LK Advani, Modi has attempted to turn a new leaf and be seen as a moderate, capable of winning acceptability from all sections of society. While this may or this may not fit in the Sangh’s scheme of things, which pushed the arch moderate Vajpayee to the center stage when he had been languishing on the margins for years, knowing well his proclivity to moderation, what certainly may not fit the Sangh’s worldview is his open defiance of the BJP Leadership. Ironically, it Modi becomes aggressively intolerant of the Sangh and more open in his defiance, he may still achieve what his Sadbhavna fast failed to – endorsement of the chattering classes. 

The media would like us to believe that Modi is immensely popular among the cadre while having limited appeal to voters outside Gujarat. While the latter may be true, considering that the BJP’s performance hasn’t really peaked where he campaigned, one wonders if the cadres will really be as enamored of Modi if more and more of them become aware that the Hindu Nationalist Modi took birth and died in 2002. The Modi we have today would probably be closest to a refined male version of Mrs Indira Gandhi – insecure, scheming, autocratic but resolute and strong – seen as a leader who delivers! For a Nation plagued with vapid leaders, a strong leader has its attractions. At the same time, one cannot discount the fact that for all her positive contributions, Indira stands heads and shoulders above all others in having succeeded in subverting the system and compromising our Constitution. Yet, for all her faults, Indira did not ditch the people she claimed she stood for. Till the very end, she remained steadfast to the people who stood by her and for those who stood for her. Here in Modi, we may be faced with a leader who cares little for those who adore him and certainly one, who has left those behind who stood for him, when it mattered the most.

Trojan in Trap

The now forgotten Mitrokhin Archives had a small chapter devoted to India where in one of the notes, the Soviet Communist Party has expressed its satisfaction that the Communist Party of India, following its instructions, had allowed its members to join the Congress (I) at various levels of leadership. This happened for the Communists realized the impracticality of their coming to power in India, either through ballot or through bullet and settled for the next best – ensuring the rule of their ideology through influence. 

While this infiltration lasted from the mid sixties to the mid seventies, it had its reflection in a curious event occurring in the mid 90s’. It would seem that the Communists, unable to bring themselves to infiltrate the BJP on account of their visceral hatred for the reactionary right, settled for the 3^rd best – installing a Trojan Horse in the party to destroy it from within.

A cursory look at the career of Sudheendra Kulkarni would indicate that he managed to do just about that – the man who can claim disproportionate credit for the ghastly ‘India Shining’ campaign and more importantly, shaking the ideological roots of the party with his design of its architect’s LK Advani’s ‘Jinnah…my homage to a Great man.’ comments. What Kulkarni managed to do in his short stint with the BJP is enviable by any standards. Not only did he become a close confidante of AB Vajpayee, he managed to win the ultimate confidence of Advani too, something which very few leaders in the BJP had managed.  A measure to his influence could be assessed from the fact that within 2 years of his joining the BJP (he joined the party in 1996); the party managed to set aside its ideological moorings (1998 elections) and jettisoned it completely in the next 6 years (2004 elections). It is a wonder that a man as erudite and intellectual as Advani could allow himself to be influenced by Kulkarni, so much so that the architect of the modern Indian polity, had no second thoughts in disowning the baby he had reared. 

Of course, with the disaster of 2009, Kulkarni had to quit the BJP in disgrace. This quitting however, in no way meant that the man was out of favor of his mentor Advani. Advani made it a point to defend him time and again and it is a matter of time before Kulkarni is brought back to the BJP with full honors intact.

If one wonders as to why a seemingly lightweight like Kulkarni is being given so much of space today, it is all courtesy the mis-adventure of cash for votes sting operation. While the arrest of the 2 BJP ex MPs, Suhail Hindustani and Kulkarni do seem like a travesty of justice and must be condemned, one wonders whether Kulkarni had contrived the failure of this sting right from the beginning.

For one – the partner chosen for the sting was IBN-Live, whose owners Rajdeep Sardesai et al, form a part of the Sonia fan brigade, a channel which never even attempted to hide its sympathies for the Congress and abhorrence of the BJP and the one which led the cacophonous cry of (alongwith NDTV) ‘Singh is King’ when Manmohan ‘Integrity’ Singh won the vote of confidence. How could a rational person even imagine that the views channel would do anything which would besmirch the reputation of the spotlessly clean UPA Government? It happened what had to happen – the sting was not aired and when aired after a considerable gap, it was a mild edited version of the entire operation. BJP pretended to boycott the channel for sometime and soon, the boycott too was forgotten.

Second – Neither Advani, nor the BJP made a big deal over the tainted vote of confidence or the scam. While it is understood that the man of impeccable integrity, Somnath Chatterjee, counted all votes cast as valid (even though the Anti Defection Act declares such votes as invalid), what is not understandable is the BJP’s silence post that. Except for asking for disqualification of the defecting MPs, the BJP did not challenge the speaker’s decisions, neither in the Parliament nor in the Court of Law. Further, the BJP did not make it an election campaign either. No Sir, no squeak on the ‘spotless’ Prime Minister winning his trust vote on the basis on damned lies and corrupt practices.

After a gap of 3 years, the still born investigation in the cash-for-votes scam was given a breath of life by the Supreme Court. But in yet another inexplicable turn of events, the Court has dissociated itself with monitoring of the case and we have a situation where the perpetrators of the crime are roaming free, not even having been named, leaved aside being questioned and imprisoned, the scam-busters are behind bars.

For those trying to paint a nuanced picture of the BJP wallahs being entrappers and not a sting operator, let them go back to the procedures adapted by the anti corruption bureau. People are caught red-handed while accepting bribes, traps for which are set by the agency itself. Or let us go back to the Left and Congress celebrated stings conducted by Tehelka. Right from Bangaru Laxman to Dileep Singh Judeo to Gujarat riots to cash for questions, traps were sprung. Nowhere did it happen that the accused had themselves sought out the scambusters and asked for bribes / shared information – so how different is the cash for votes sting conducted by the BJP that it be condemned. Of course, Tehelka being owned by the son of a senior Congress leader from Punjab, the former’s condemnation of the BJP sponsored sting is understandable. What is not understandable is the willing suspension of reason and plain indifference from the relatively more neutral and right thinking of our not-so-civil society.

Maybe and remotely maybe, our indifference to the UPA shenanigans and the plight of Kulkarni flows from our sub-conscious realization that the sting did not flow from an honest intent. Even otherwise, a few days in Tihar pale in comparison his monumental sin of having irreparably compromised the father figure of modern Indian Nationalism.

Promotion of Communal Violence Bill

Centuries ago, by the time Islamic Sultanates had managed to exercise their supremacy over Gangetic India, there arose a peculiar conflict – of bands of sanyasis being beaten and robbed by bands of fakirs. If one wonders on what made these fakirs act so violently towards sanyasis, the answer lies in three basic facts:

·      Fakirs were considered above the law on most matters

·      With the imposition of Jaziya on Hindu lands, carrying arms had become the sole prerogative of Muslims, with the only exceptions being Hindu noblemen / warriors being in direct service to the emperor

·      Crimes by Muslims against the kaffirs carried little censure as compared to crimes by Muslims against fellow Muslims and worse, crimes by Hindus against Muslims

Anyways, the drift continued for a couple of centuries only being broken in phases where the Muslim rule weakened. However, with the consolidation of Akbar’s rule, jaziya was first temporarily and then permanently removed and Akbar, on representation by various sanyasi orders, allowed them to carry arms and act in self defense. Very soon, the Sanyasis found themselves on surer footing compared to fakirs and we had more militant sanyasi orders coming into being. Things, of course, took a worse turn for sanyasis with the rule of Aurangzeb when the fakir order became bolder again but soon again, the rise of multiple revolts through the country weakened his Empire and the Mughal Empire was served a fatal body blow with the rise of Maratha Empire. 

And the impact of these changes – many sanyasi orders became equivalent to a band of brigands, collecting taxes from villages and zamindars in their area of operations and many a times, liquidating competing bands of sanyasis and fakirs. These sanyasi bands had become so powerful that even during the oppressive Islamic rule in Bengal, their writ run over large areas and later, the East India Company had had to fight pitched battles to get rid of the marauding bands.

But how are events which happened over the last few centuries relevant to us now? Plainly, because it reinforces the fading reality that without the fear of law, even the most humble and meek creatures can turn into bloodthirsty marauders. Had the fakirs been under the pale of law, the sanyasis, in most likelihood, would have continued to be away from acts of retributive violence. Likewise, if the sanyasis had been adequately controlled by local kings, it is unlikely that they would have turned to medieval version of local warlords.

Today, we are faced with the prospect of being thrust with a legislation, which will ensure that the identified ‘minority’ communities will be above the law while any act of the majority, which can even remotely be construed as damaging to the identified minority.

And who is this minority? Minority in a state – meaning Hindus and Buddhists in the state of Jammu and Kashmir, Muslims in all other states of the country and probably Christians in all states of the country other than the North Eastern states of Nagaland, Mizoram and Meghalaya. Even here, it is to the discretion of Jammu & Kashmir assembly if they do indeed decide to extend the law to the state.

Rather than delve into the point of weakening of the federal structure of our country on account of this legislation, let us only concentrate on the banality of assumptions which has moved the NAC driven UPA Government to introduce such legislation.

Assumption 1: The legislation assumes that minorities are minorities through the entire geographical / demographical area of the state and hence are always weak.  

Reality: Each state may have districts where the minority is in a majority, i.e., Malappuram and Manjeri in Kerala, Nagercoil in Tamil Nadu, Hyderabad in Andhra Pradesh, Malegaon in Maharashtra, Murshidabad and Malda in West Bengal, Dhubri and Barpeta in Assam, Kishanganj and Purnea in Bihar, Rampur in Uttar Pradesh and so on. Likewise, if not in districts, many states have parliamentary and assembly constituencies where the minority is in a majority or towns / cities where this phenomenon can be observed. Further, each town has at least one locality where the so called minority is a majority. If we leave aside the question of base majority/minority, we have whole regions like Western UP, North Bihar, Lower Assam, Gangetic Bengal etc where the so called minority is around 40%-45% of the total population. If the Act defines minority at the macro level, should it not go deeper and define minority in a fairer and more relevant micro level.

Assumption 2: Numbers alone mean domination.

Reality: if the assumption were true, a handful of colonizers from Europe would not have ruled the world, 300 strong Muslim army would not have won the Battle of Badr, nor would Babur have won Panipat and Plassey would have seen Siraj-ud-daula victorious. A determined, organized and well resourced group with a definite goal is way more powerful that an larger group of vacuous and disparate individuals. It is not for nothing that one says, ‘Having One Lion in the army is better than having a million sheep’.

Assumption 3: It is always the minority which bears the brunt of the riots.

Reality: While this assumption is certainly true in countries like Bangladesh, which have only Hindu casualties whenever riots happen, one would be surprised to note that the so called majority community forms a disproportionately large proportion of the killed, hurt and displaced. Rather than delving too far into history, let us look at figures on riots in the last decade or so:

a.   Mumbai – 1993 - 575 Muslims and 275 Hindus (2:1)

b.   Malegaon – 2002 – 12 Muslims and 3 Hindus (4:1)

c.   Gujarat – 2004 – 794 Muslims and 254 Hindus (3:1)

d.   Marad – 2003 – 1 Muslim and 8 Hindus (1:8)

e.   Mau – 2005 – 2 Muslims and 10 Hindus (1:5)

f.     Aligarh – 2006 – 2 Muslims and 4 Hindus (1:2)

g.   Hyderabad – 2010 – 0 Muslims and 4 Hindus

h.   Deganga – 2010 – 0 mosques damaged and 4 temples burnt

In case riots are really one sided, one can wonder whether the number of dead from the ‘majority’ community means that they committed suicide only to give a bad name to the meek, peaceful minorities! And before anyone steps into point out that minority casualties are higher than the majority casualties in case of Bombay and Gujarat riots, one should account for the fact that normally an 80% strong majority would ensure that cent percent casualties are from the 20% minority or a the very most, a few collaterals in course of the one way blood bath. But one can see, reality is different. Higher number of Muslim casualties in Muslim dominated Malegaon was on account of police action on marauding mobs, yet again an indicator that better armed crowd can inflict more damage on a larger opposing mob.

Assumption 4: Riots are always instigated by the majority 

Reality: Majority of riots in the country have been instigated and led by the minorities. Even the arch liberal, Atal Bihari Vajpayee in his 1971 address to the Parliament, used home ministry data to buttress that point. But since 1971 is so last century – let us look at facts for the last 2 decades.

a.   Mumbai – 1993 – Destruction of Ganesh Idol in Bandra East

b.   Malegaon – 2002 – Procession protesting attack on Afghanistan turned violent

c.   Gujarat – 2004 – Godhra carnage

d.   Marad – 2003 – Unprovoked. Police inquiry pointed to a conspiracy to intimidate the Hindu ninority.

e.   Mau – 2005 – Attack on Ram Baraat procession

f.     Aligarh – 2006 – Attack on Bharat Milap procession

g.   Burhanpur – 2008 – Attack on Hanuman Rath

h.   Dhule – 2008 – Attack on Navratri Pandal

i.     Kandhamal – 2008 – Killing of Swami Laxmananand Saraswati

j.     Miraj – 2009 – Ganpati pandal depicting killing of Afzal Khan by Shivaji

k.   Bareilly – 2010 – Banned Tazia procession taken out through a prohibited route

l.     Hyderabad – 2010 – Removal of Hanuman Jayanti banners

m. Deganga 2010 – Unprovoked. Apparent Muslim anger at the upcoming Durga Puja celebrations

n.   Bharatpur – 2011 – Attack and arson on Gujjar homes following dispute on a public ground

Both the above lists can go on and on. 

All the right thinking citizens should ponder and evaluate if this proposed bill is indeed being driven by the noble intent of preventing communal violence? In its present form, the bill is certain to handle immunity from prosecution and retribution to a very organized, militant and belligerent ‘minority’ – which may not even be a minority in the true sense of the word.

The passage of this bill in its current form, where perpetrators and victims are defined by birth is the worst form of legal apartheid and can only lead to a situation where a cornered ‘majority’ may be forced to jettison its wavering belief in the intent and capability of its ruling classes to protect its basic rights to life and dignity.

Gandhi and Anna

Funnily enough, the same set of people who had accused of Anna Hazare’s team being mulishly unreasonable in their negotiations with the Central Government have rubbed their hands in glee when the fast ended, without any tangible goals being achieved. So, damned if I am unreasonable and more damned if I am reasonable!

While such comments are very well expected from the status quoists and blind supporters of the UPA Government, what is disappointing is the inability and more importantly, indifference of Team Anna to counter the allegations that Anna’s Satyagraha was non-Gandhian and went against basic tenets of Satyagraha.

Before we move to Gandhian Satyagraha, let us pause for a moment on the very Dharmic sounding term Satyagraha, or Truth Force. It is a tribute to the Gandhian genius that a concept which had no roots in any of the Dharmic traditions, being a gift of early Christianity in general and Celtic monks in particular, is recognized as Indian. Gandhi picked what he thought was doable in Indian context and gave truth-force an Indian imagery. While Gandhi did popularize Satyagraha, the concept is not his own and so the talk of x Satyagraha not being a copybook Satyagraha is at best mirthful. Satyagraha flows from one’s conviction on correctness of one’s belief. Hence the Satyagrahi is right in his/her own limited universe. But since few truths are absolute, any Satyagraha may indeed by countered by a contrary but equally valid Satyagraha. In this probable clash of Satyagrahis, it will be the strength of conviction of the individual that may triumph – not necessary the degree of ‘righteousness’ of the cause. Anyways, since Truth itself is not absolute, we don’t have any right to point fingers at Anna’s fast by way of calling it autocratic and the one stifling voices of dissent.  Anna fasted for his own convictions not for beliefs of an Arundhati or an Aruna Roy.

Yet again, we have been told that how Gandhi’s fasts were against the foreign occupier and never against Indian authority. Since Anna was fasting against a democratically elected Government, he was seen as going against the very grain of Satyagraha. However, a perusal of Gandhi’s numerous fasts would indicate that Gandhi fasted against his countrymen too and fasted even after independence. In fact, it was his fast to force the Central Government to pay Rs 55 Crores to Pakistan, that became the proverbial last straw, in Nathuram Godse’s words, and triggered his assassination. Truth force is directed against some act or some person who is believed to be morally in the wrong. So, Anna had every right to force an immoral and corrupt Government to listen to his diktat, by the way of his choosing.

Further, a careful study of Gandhi’s Satyagraha and in fact, all civil disobedience movements across the world, will indicate that such movements are successful more against one’s own, rather than the oppressors / colonial masters. None of Gandhi’s fasts / movements against the British were successful in the sense of achieving their stated goals. At the same time, his fasts against the Indians, be it Ahmedabad Mill Owners, the King of Rajkot, for security of Muslims in Kolkata in 1947 and the Pay Pakistan fast were all successful – not because Gandhi had a more valid or stronger moral case, they succeeded because people who were the target of those fasts cared for loved him, their Mahatma. 

People aware of the Gandhian struggle would be stuck by parallels in between the world famous Salt Satyagraha and the Anna fast at Ramleela Maidan. Testing them against a few parameters:

Seemingly Trivial Cause: Abolition of the Salt Tax and not some other larger cause of independence. Likewise, Anna took up Jan Lokpal, not the behemoth of corruption all together.

Apolitical: Except for Chakravarti Rajagopalachari, who led a now forgotten, parallel march on the East Coast, all other leading Congressmen, Patel and Nehru included, had reservations on the efficacy cause and had kept their distance from the Dandi March. It was only when the march captured the imagination of the world that it became a Congress movement. Similarly, political parties tried to clamber on to the anti-corruption bandwagon only when they realized the potency of the collective emotional upsurge Anna had created.

Media Role: The world press reported Gandhi’s march on a daily basis and was instrumental in making the world aware of India’s struggle for freedom from the foreign rule. Is it any wonder that the media, magnified in its presence on account of technology, played such a powerful role in spreading Anna’s message?

Elite snobbery and mass participation: The British Government was hardly unnerved by the prospect of salt tax law being broken. Same way, UPA was hardly bothered with the prospect of the fast of a 74 year old. Court scribes were asking aloud if this fast would generate the spectator interest equal to early April’s spectacle. Well, events certainly spun out of control in both instances. Salt Satygraha was a watershed in the term that it saw huge participation from the womenfolk, hitherto untouched by the Nationalist struggle. Anna’s fast, for all the contrary noises struck a chord with the Youth, who had been away from the political discourse since the Ayodhya and Mandal heydays. 

Violence: Contrary to popular perception, Satyagrahas were not always completely non-violent affairs. In course of the Salt Satyagraha, violence broke out in numerous places in Bengal and Bihar and even Gandhi, wiser after the flak received after withdrawing his movement over Chauri Chaura, declined to even condemn mob violence. Of course, since there weren’t mass incarcerations, chances of violence on those scales in Anna’s campaign were lower. Yet, the only instance of violence where some drunk youth clashed with police was shrilly denounced by the likes of shallow-as-usual Sagarika Ghose as the proof of fascists in Anna’s campaign!

Quasi Religious nature: Seculars may beat their hearts out but like Anna’s Satyagraha, the Salt Satyagraha too was heavy on Hindu imagery with Bhajans, havans, pujas and of course, cries of Vande Ma Taram!

Muslim participation: Get it straight- Muslims as a group, did not participate in the Salt Satyagraha. Muslim League opposed it and major imams / pirs (including the powerful pir of Manki Sharif) declared that they had nothing to do with it. While I would like to believe that the rants of Imam Bukhari comes from his being a pro-establishment person, even if his assertion was correct, level of Muslim participation in Anna’s Satyagraha would be no different from their indifference to the Salt Satyagraha. Regarding allegations of lack of Dalit and backward class participation, they are a little tough to swallow when you consider that these allegers - Udit Raj had little support outside the Akbar Road, while the likes of Kancha Illaiah are not even known to anyone outside the circle of habitual Hindu bashers. More critically, the middle class and the rural class are not upper castes alone but are predominantly OBCs with a good sprinkling of the lower classes (particularly in rural areas). And one had to move around Ramleela Maidan and Indian heartland to see for oneself the chord Anna had stuck.

Success: If success means achievement of the stated goals – both movements are unsuccessful. The salt law was not repealed nor do we have a Jan Lokpal. However, the Salt Satyagraha was epoch making in the sense that the scale of mass awareness and anger at the now seen as unjust British rule was instrumental in building a National consciousness. We may never have a Jan Lokpal the way Anna wants. It is however, beyond doubt that the energy unleashed by his fast can only do good to our quest for a clean polity.

Marxist Pop Historians like Ramchandra Guha have claimed that the relatively low public attendance at Ramleela Maidan indicated that people did not really support Anna and what we saw were magnified images of a small minority. As per the most liberal estimates quoted by Late Morarji Desai, not more than 5% of the Indian population actively participated in the National Independence Movement in their lifetime. Does that mean that 95% of people in India were against the independence movement or does support only mean coming to the streets and getting arrested? For that matter, none of the Central Governments in India have been elected on account of ever having won more than 50% of the popular vote and no General Election has seen a turnout higher than the range of mid-sixties. So, even if we take the upper extremes of both the popular vote (incidentally 48% by Congress (I) in 1984) and the voting percentage, we will still be left with a 33% overall mandate for the winning party. Does that mean that people oppose those Governments?

Professional dissenters and habitual attention seekers have tried to denounce Anna’s campaign for a better India in all possible ways. Rather than being stuck with questions on whether Anna supports Kashmiri Separatists or wants a ban on Cow Slaughter or whether he is an admirer or a sworn opponent of Narendra Modi, let us try to remember than he is fighting for his own conviction. There are a thousand causes and he cannot support all of them, however fashionable or desirable they might be. Till the time Anna or anyone for that matter displays sincerity in addressing a cause which is the same as or even identical to mine, even if our paths diverge otherwise, let us all say – ‘I am Anna’

In Defence of Baba Ramdev

The ‘success’ of Anna’s fast has had an interesting collateral damage – the near complete decimation of Baba Ramdev’s credibility as a crusader against corruption. While Anna has certainly been hugely successful in mobilizing public opinion against one of the most effete and corrupt Governments India has seen (that sadly, is not saying much), it will be too much for even the most optimistic of souls to proclaim that the struggle for Jan Lokpal succeeded. While we will analyze and certainly defend Anna’s struggle separately, it will be more worthwhile to dwell a little on Baba Ramdev’s struggle and failure.

Compared to the campaign run for Jan Lokpal, which was more of an instant cause, Baba Ramdev’s campaign against Black Money had been on for the last two years with the Baba using his country wide yoga camps and televised shows to disseminate his message. It was Baba Ramdev who had been the moving force behind India Against Corruption and it was in the Baba’s Ramlila Maidan Rally earlier this year, that overwhelmed by the large gathering, Anna had touched Baba’s feet, proclaimed that he now believes that corruption would be eliminated in India and had declared his support for the fast. Baba Ramdev was among the prime financers of the April fast by Anna and had a significant role in crowd mobilization and in all probability being the force behind the ‘communal’ Bharat Mata portrait on the stage.

Yet, while Anna moved from relative obscurity to becoming a National icon in course of his four days April fast, a more organized and powerful Baba Ramdev found himself pushed to the corner in spite of mobilizing a huge crowd, right on day one of his fast unto death. While the build up to Baba Ramdev’s fast had seen Team Anna extend its support to him and the brutal crackdown did elicit strong reaction from them, very soon, it became clear that with the Baba tying himself in knots, he was to be more of a liability than an asset to Team Anna. Hence, from being its patron financier mobilizer, he was reduced to a mere by stander, not allowed to even meet Anna, when the latter was incarcerated at Tihar Jail.

The countdown to Ramdev’s political oblivion begun, ironically, with his meetings with Kapil Sibal. Having given a routine undertaking, the Baba found little maneuvering space once the Government declared that he had reneged on his promises. While the brutal and unwarranted crackdown of police temporarily did give the halo of a martyr to Ramdev, his call for a trained army of volunteers and inability to carry on the fast showed him to be an unworthy leader. While the political immaturity of Baba Ramdev has certainly played a huge role in his humiliation; just watch him fumble and get aggressive and defensive by turns, when asked probing questions, there can be little doubt that the hostile role played by the media has served to undercut Baba Ramdev more than he actually deserved. While the media, particularly the English news channels had always been openly contemptuous of this rustic, saffron clad mendicant from rural Haryana, the fact of his dressing in a salwar to flee the police crackdown were replayed again and again to forcefully reinforce the point on Baba’s cowardice. Semi-celebrities like Sonam Kapoor declared him a bigot for his anti-homosexuality views while the Shabnam Hashmis of the world managed to snoop out a Godhra in his designs. Compared to the crescendo of well-deserved condemnation of the Government’s attempt to muffle voice of protest, when Anna was arrested, the outrage following the Ramlila Maidan crackdown was certainly more muted and the ELM condemnation was tinged with glee at the saffronite being shown his rightful place.

Yet, while criticizing both Baba Ramdev’s immaturity and the role of the media, one should not lose sight of the fact the Baba Ramdev’s chief advisor, Shri Govindacharya made himself absent when the crackdown happened and was not to be seen when Ramdev was further tying himself up in knots the coming days. While only the inner circle will know on what exactly, whether hints of megalomania in Baba Ramdev’s conduct, his probable disregard for advice or any other factor prompted Govindacharya to disassociate himself with the fast post crackdown, it cannot be denied that after having guided and mentored the Bharat Swabhiman movement for greater part of the last two years, Govindacharya owed it to its followers to have presented himself to steady the rocky boat of the movement. However, if Govindacharya did indeed move away on account of controversies associated with Ramdev, he would have played true to his upbringing in the RSS ideology where even the slightest stain on honour or association with trouble makes you a person-non-grata in the parivar.

Coming back to Anna’s recent fast, the parliament’s ‘sense of the house’ has given an honourable cloak of retreat to Team Anna, something which was made to resemble a victory over Jan Lokpal by our spin doctors. However, this has meant that the Baba comes out all the more poor compared to Anna – a fortyish yoga guru unable to fast for seven days vis-à-vis a septuagenarian fasting for 12 days and more critically a loser as compared to a winner. Had Team Anna had to withdraw without a modicum of victory, there would still have been a decent number of people who would have placed their bets on Baba Ramdev’s movement against black money. But now that we have a ready winner in Anna, few, other than his personal followers would want to side with him in his crusade. A discernible indicator to this is media and public reaction to Government actions against him vis-à-vis the former’s reaction to Government actions against Team Anna. While Baba Ramdev has been declared guilty before even crimes being identified, (just like how the Kanchi Shankaracharya’s guilt was established), allegations against the Bhushans’ and Arvind Kejriwal have been trashed without analysis of their merits, if any.

Finally, while Team Anna’s intent to fight corruption is noble, the tool of Jan Lokpal is more akin to Gandhi taking up the Salt Tax issue to fight colonialism! Salt tax was not repealed in spite of the Salt Satyagrah’s success in mobilizing people. Likewise, the Jan Lokpal, an envisioned by Anna’s team is unlikely to see the day, if for nothing else, on account of the glaring drawbacks of the said proposal. Compared to the Jan Lokpal, it can be argued that the demands put forth by Baba Ramdev, i.e., Declaring accounts of Indians in tax havens as national property; Declaring stashing away black money in tax havens as national crime; Setting up of fast track courts in all states to deal specially with corruption issues; Removal of high denomination currency notes from the economy; Enactment of a strong Public Service Delivery Guarantee Act and Removing the Land Acquisition Act; will have a more profound and long lasting impact on the public life in country.

Whither BJP?

It is unlikely that a party which believes that it will get lucky the way Congress did in 2004, will read much in the assembly election results for the five states. Since the party in question has never bothered to compare  its scraggly grassroots structure with Congress’s undeniable presence, however skeletal, in the five lakh odd villages across the country, it has all along believed that the right amount of intrigue will allow it to have yet another stint at the center. While it is surprising that this mentality does not seem to have changed, even after 7 years of National irrelevance, what is certainly more inexplicable is the fact that this ostrich like approach has been adopted by leaders who attained power only after cutting their teeth in agitational street politics. Since we haven’t had a generational change of leadership yet, we still have the same set of ‘young’ leaders presiding over the BJP’s sure but steady decline.

While Pranab’s Mukherjee’s comments on the BJP’s performance may be termed churlish, there is no denial that the failure to register its presence in states comprising 116 Lok Sabha seats indicate that the general voter is still hesitant to trust the BJP. Leave aside having the Lotus bloom in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Bengal, Puducherry and Assam, the party has had to face the ignominy of seeing its presence shrink in Assam, the only state where it had an outside chance of coming to power.

Let us look at some figures:

Kerala: BJP came second in three seats, up from the regular runner up position in two seats. While there may some substance in allegations of UDF-LDF vote transfer, it is not their opponent’s but BJP’s business to see that they win a seat. Regarding vote share; while they do seem to have registered a 1.25% rise, it still brings them to 6.05%, close to the 5.85% and 5.75%, they had registered in 2001 and 1996 polls respectively. Otherwise, the figures are lower than what they had managed in the civic polls left last year. In a nutshell, BJP remains where it was a decade back.

Tamil Nadu: BJP came second in 1 seat and no, it was not Nagercoil, which it was expecting to win. Vote share wise, it got less than 3% votes. While it was still better than 2006 elections, BJP had indeed won the Ramanathpuram seat in 1996 polls when it had fought without entering into any alliance. Yet again, no forward movement for the part in the last 15 years

Assam: While BJP’s seats have halved, its vote share has fallen only by a percent. The dichotomy in seats and votes is explained by the fact that while its increased presence in Upper Assam was not sufficient enough to translate into votes, reduced vote share in Barak valley ensured that it lost what it had. Anyways, 11% vote share and runner up spot in 24 seats can at best make a party a pressure group, not the ruling party in any state. And this is a state which has held huge promise for the BJP right from 1991. In the last 20 years though, overall the BJP has remained where it was. To blame the AGP for its bad performance, i.e., not forming an alliance is as asinine an excuse as it could be. This excuse by itself is sufficient proof that the BJP was more interested in piggy backing the AGP that emerging as a credible alternative to the Congress in Assam

West Bengal: The current assembly polls are the worst performance of the BJP in Bengal in the last two decades. While in 1991, it managed the runner up spot in quite a few constituencies and bagged a healthy 11.34% vote share, it came down to 6.45% in 1996, further down to 5.19% in 2001 and around 4% now. Forget about many seats, the closest they came to winning was at Madarihat (otherwise considered a sure shot win), where the candidate scored only 25% of popular vote as against a 38% share in 2009 General Elections. In no other seat could the party come remotely close to replicating even the Madarihat performance. Quite a fall for the party focusing on Bengal for than a year now.

What is obvious from BJP’s performance is that the rewards of anti incumbency or any anger against the UPA government will be reaped by the party / leader seen as a credible alternative. With the propensity of BJP’s current leadership to fight is battles in television studios and five star hotels, it is not a surprise that people have little trust in BJP’s ability to offer a credible alternative. A party which has turned its back on its core constituency and does not have any ideology to speak of, can only be a weak clone of the Congress and with the original very much around, why should one vote for the wannabe? Results from Bengal, Kerala and Assam clearly indicate that even the vulnerable Hindu community has reposed faith in TMC, LDF and the Congress, respectively, rather than trusting the ostensible protector of the Hindus.

However, to be fair to the BJP, it did try hard to register its presence as far as campaigning is concerned. Without paying any attention to the carping of an ex-nationalist commentator, it would be fair to state that the party’s endeavor to increase its presence, so that they be of incremental benefit to potential allies. BJP won allies in the 1990s only because the allies felt threatened that their space could be occupied by the BJP or because BJP gave them enough incremental support to challenge Congress in their respective states. Why should any party have a NPA as an ally, after all? Only, fighting elections alone does not make a party powerful. It is finally people’s support that matters and people like to believe in leaders they support. Sadly for the BJP, its discredited central leadership is yet to hang up boots and likewise, it is yet to produce a crop of leaders which could set a popular agenda. Leave aside these states, the BJP's performance in Pipraich Assembly bypolls in UP, where it managed to just about hang on to its vote share and third position, indicates that the UP turnaround is yet to happen. A feeling of jubiliation on Left's defeat will be foolhardy for while a weakened Left may imply death of a Third Front, there still lies an option of a 'Fourth Front', a motely group of parties garnering enough seats to form a rag tag Government for some time. Expecting a hamstrung Gadkari, who anyways did not exactly have a great innings in Maharashtra, to do wonders to the party all by himself, is expecting too much from him.

It is funny that some sections of the media have yet again blamed the RSS for BJP’s poor performance in the polls. Hello, where has the RSS been in BJP’s functioning / electioneering except for exceptions like Madhya Pradesh? Who knows, probably the absence of RSS/VHP/BD volunteers is something which has been impacting the efficacy of BJP’s electioneering!

Election Results: Ominous signs

Like any other elections, results declared on May 13, 2011 have brought cheer to the victims and gloom to the vanquished. While individual states may seem to have given either a thumbs up or a thumbs down to their ruling parties basis ‘local’ issues, a few trends emerging out of these results seem to augur ill for the country in the long run. Please don’t accuse me of stating that State Elections are fought on ‘National’ issues. I would in fact, go to the other end and say that in an election without any emotive central theme, most General Elections are an amalgam of many minor state elections. At the same time, what one cannot deny is that National issues do have a significant impact on the people voting to elect their state government. Hence, results of State Elections are seen as a portent of the people think of a ‘National’ party. Not so long back, it was BJP’s rout in 2007 UP elections which showed itself incapable of forming a strong parliamentary core to any NDA Government, with the loss in cosmopolitan Delhi showing inefficacy of its campaign to people. People voting for local issues do not necessarily jettison the ‘National’ issues at head and may decide to opt for the more ‘pressing’ priority on hand.

Hence, while the people of Tamil Nadu seem to have punished DMK for its corrupt and arrogant ways, of Kerala having withdrawn from the levels of disdain they had displayed towards LDF in the General Elections, people in Bengal seem to have voted for a long overdue change rather than positively reposing faith in the Congress policies. Tiny Pondicherry, has in its own way, has either punished the incumbent (?), rewarded its favorite son (?) or turned its back to the corrupt Congress regime in Delhi (?). Inexplicable, however, has been the choice of the Assamese for they seem to have rewarded a corrupt government, which did not have much to show to its credit and which, by all accounts, was hard pressed to retain even its current seat tally

While it is certainly the case that the scenario of all parties having tasted power at some time or the other has meant that people are no longer having any illusion of one being better than the other. At the same time, it doesn’t mean that the incumbent can go on reaping fruits of office without fear of punishment. After all, even if opposition parties get a share of spoils, that share will certainly be much lesser than what the rulers get and would not percolate at the same rate to their grass-root workers. Hence, the pain of being out of office, and by default, having lesser share of the ‘cream’ should be sufficient to act as a punishing tool for any non-performing corrupt ruling party. Hence, there is no reason why a Tamil Nadu should not vote out a DMK and Assam a Congress.

What is ominous for the country is the clear emergence of minority communal politics as being THE deciding factor in electoral politics. While the newspapers are full of VS Achyutanandan’s heroic campaign against the UDF, relatively little attention has been paid to the fact that the war against corruption seems to have impacted only the Hindu electorate with the Christian and Muslim groups reposing faith in Congress. Lest I be accused of being alarmist, let’s look at some facts and statistics: The UDF comprised of 9 parties these elections and of these, the Socialist Janata Dal is led by a Jain and Janathipathiya Samrakshana Samithy led by a Hindu. Of the others, while 6 of them are led by Christians the balance IUML, is led by a Muslim. Of these 9 parties, the only Hindu led party does not have any representation in this Kerala assembly. In effect, the ruling front now is a minority front, having won on account of consolidation of Muslim and Christian votes. Of course, Hindu support is there but certainly, to imagine that the front will stand for Hindu interests is laughable. Even this UDF victory has been brought about by the spectacular performance of the IUML, which has won 20 of the 24 seats it contested, having virtually swept the Muslim majority Malappuram. Obviously, affinity to community leaders was a more important criterion for deciding their voting preference for the minority communities. It is for the first time that we now have a ‘mainstream’ state of India, being ruled by the ostensible minorities, in spirit and in reality. Lest is sound unconvincing, let us have a look at numbers again. Of the 140 MLAs, 73 are Hindus, 37 Muslims and 30 Christians; More importantly, in the UDF, of its 72 MLAs, only 26 are Hindus while 29 are Muslims and 17 are Christians, i.e., 70% of the ruling class belong to 'minority' communities.

It is interesting that compared to previous LDF stints, the Achyutanandan regime witnessed lesser number of clashes in between the LDF and RSS cadres. Was it because of the not so covert cultivation of the Malayalee Hindu by Achyutanandan? Even now, compared to the local body polls, LDF’s vote share seems to have gone up by roughly the same degree by which the BJP’s vote share has fallen. Did it mean that, faced with a spectacle of even more assertive minority politics, a section of BJP’s voters simply moved to the LDF? If that be so, corruption was not an issue even in Kerala. It will however be foolhardy to imagine this as being the beginning of a more rational left position on issues of secularism. A group of people defined by their visceral hatred of Indian culture and religion can only exploit sentiments and insecurities and not protect the vulnerable.

Coming to West Bengal, it cannot be wished away that Mamata Banerjee was more than aggressive in her wooing of Muslims. Right from the issue of Rizwan’s suicide to tom-toming of the Sachar committee’s report, she has been assiduously trying to paint herself as the new champion of minorities, reciting namaaz in rallies and taking care to cover herself with a green shawl all the times. Even in an issue as ghastly as Deganga, where Muslim hooligans desecrated temples and attacked a hapless Hindu minority, she maintained a studied silence and only accused the RSS/BJP of dividing people. In a state which already had a declared 30% Muslim population in the 2001 census itself, it is likely that this percentage has only increased and they, in effect, decide the rulers of the state. Anyways, the state assembly now has the highest number of Muslims ever elected (59 and around 20% of the assembly) and even the vanquished left has around one third of its MLAs from the minority community. With the defeat of both Buddhadeb Bhattacharya and Gautam Deb, it is likely that the next Left Front Leader would be a Muslim, an overt attempt to mend bridges with the community which has moved to TMC in the last couple of years.

Most inexplicable has been the state of Assam where a Government, buffeted on various fronts, has managed to increase its vote share so spectacularly. Not only has the issue of corruption, both at the State and the National levels, failed to have an impact, the voting suggests a clear consolidation of the Muslim votes in favor of Congress and the AUDF. This, however, still does not explain the victory of Congress in Upper Assam, which has turned its back to both the BJP and AGP. OHere again, maximum number of Muslims have made as legislators till date; 28 or around 25% of the assembly strength. 16 of the 18 AIUDF members are Muslims while 10 of Congress MLAs belong to this community. ne more state seems to have fallen irretrievably to minority politics of the darkest kind.

As expected, the ELM is full of advice to the Left on ‘mending’ its ideology to appeal to the new age. It seems that they miss the point of Left ideology having emerged a victor in this election too. Mamata Banerjee has spared no efforts to underline her commitment to Ma, Mati Manush and has openly proclaimed herself to represent the ‘true’ communist thought. She is all pains to explain that the old ‘communists’ were good while the current are ‘bad’. And what is bad about them: Only the fact that they tried to bring in industrialization and free market economics (of course, by most reprehensible of means but being adopted by State Governments of all colours). It was this desire to change that proved their nemesis. What does the ELM want the Left to change to? No one, not even the ELM seems to know. Little has, on the other hand been said about the barbaric culture they represented, the way they made politics a tool of retribution and violence, how they subverted institutes, killed dissent and made the party an extension of the Government. While the change was long overdue and it is certainly Left’s defeat in 2009 Lok Sabha elections which gave the hapless people a confidence that CPM can actually be defeated, if Mamata’s protestations about her being the ‘true’ communist are correct, a culture change may still elude Bengal.

In the other fortress where Left stands vanquished, issues have never been about ideology for both the UDF and LDF represented same thought process. In spite of its defeat, the Communist thought process is too deeply ingrained in the academia and the political establishment to whiter away just like that.

In a way, not only do these state elections results represent victory of minority communalism, they represent the ever reducing impact of larger issue in public decision making. With corruption being the mantra of the day, no one talks about price rise, which anyways seem to be as ineffectual an election issue as corruption and public loot. Even Tamil Nadu results, which seem to be a saving grace will be rendered meaningless if, the victor walks over to the mother bee of corruption, something which she does not seem averse to.