I proclaim my innocence lest feminists get the urge to lynch me, the adage I am about to quote is just that – an adage and bears no reference to my own opinions.
"Aurat ke liye sautan ka dukh vaidhavya ke dukh se bada hota hai." Loosely translated meaning that a woman in a bigamous marriage is more unhappy than a woman who has lost her husband.
Whether or not this adage is true or whether its truth has changed over the years, we must leave that to social scientists to investigate. What we must certainly observe and comment upon is the amount of glee in both the Congress’s and the BJP’s camps, over the less than honorable performance of either parties in the assembly elections in general and in the Uttar Pradesh polls in particular. While any neutral observer may observe that both the parties failed, the statements from both the parties would make it seem that each of them is deriving more joy at the humiliation of the other, not realizing that it has been stripped too.
In Congress’s defence, let me state that while it could not protect its performance of 2009, it still recorded a 3% increase in vote share and while it was a runner up in only 35 constituencies, it did manage to poll more than 15,000 votes in a very large number of constituencies. In effect, Congress is actually a presence across Uttar Pradesh now, not a party whose performance in a few pocket boroughs will give a mis-impression of a vote share of 8-10%. True the party lost about 5%-6% when compared to the Lok Sabha polls but then it did not contest in about 50 seats this time. Most critically, the downward spiral seen in its vote share, since 1990 has been reversed and has actually increased.
Look at the BJP on the other hand. It lost votes, both when compared with 2007 assembly and 2009 Lok Sabha polls. It is all but decimated in the Central UP the heartland which carries the maximum seats of all regions, having captured only 11% of popular votes this time. In vast swathes of the State the BJP has finished 5th or 6th and has had the largest number of forfeitures in the last few decades. While it may seem that the BJP has lost 1% of vote as compared to 2007, when it had a 17% share, it had contested those polls in alliance with Apna Dal and JD(U) which together had polled over 2% of votes. This time, in spite of having fought almost all the seats independently, it managed a mere 16%, a fall of over 3%. In the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, it managed 19% with its ally the RLD managing another 3%. Compared to 2009, the BJP too has lost 6% of the votes.
Now who is the bigger loser, the BJP or the Congress?
With these results, it is quite cussed on the part of the RSS to blame BJP’s political leadership alone for the debacle. The central leadership was as far away from managing the election as it could be, it having been handled almost exclusively by Nitin Gadkari and Sanjay Joshi, with all the blessings of the RSS. If things were so wrong to begin with, why did not the RSS set things right while the polls were on? Everyone can after all, be wise in the hindsight.
One interesting phenomenon which seems to have missed notice of most commentators is that the BJP’s performance in terms of seats is actually not as bad as it should have been. If you are wondering how, then let’s have a look at these figures
Year Vote Share (with allies) Seats (with allies)
1991 30% 212
1993 33% 177
1997 31% 176
2002 25% 88
2007 19% 51
2012 16% 47
In the first past the post system, any party winning over 30% of votes in a multi partied election is almost destined to emerge as the winner or at least the single largest party. Hence, the drop in BJP’s votes in 1997 did not translate into much of a loss for them in terms of seats. The difference came in 2002 when BJP’s 6% decline resulted in its seats being reduced by half, i.e., to 88 A further 6% reduction resulted in another over 40% loss for the BJP in 2007 while a 3% loss in 2009 has resulted in a loss of mere 4 seats. Add to that 10 other seats where the BJP lost by less than 1,000 votes and we see that its seat share is actually more than what it otherwise deserved. What happened?
It is worthwhile to note that 23 of the 47 seats which the BJP has won are seas where Muslims form over 30% of the population. Overall, with the number of constituencies where it was the runner up, i.e., 55, it was a presence in 102 odd seats. Not that bad when one considers that it was only 243 odd seats which the Sanjay Joshi led team was focusing. So, booth level election management probably did arrest some bit of the BJP’s slide without which it might have reduced to 30-35 seats, which quite a few opinion polls had been projecting.
Anyways, a party which concentrates only on 243 of 402 seats cannot be considered a serious contender for power. A party which is a factor only in one-quarter of the total assembly seats does not deserve to be the ruling party. The BJP fought for the 3rd spot and it won that. With each election, we see a steady downgrading of the BJP’s ambitions in UP and UP rewards it accordingly. After all, who would want to vote for a party which does not stand for anything or anybody?
Why did the BJP perform so badly? Congress’s stars are not exactly on an upswing, the BSP was discredited and SP’s rule was not a distant memory yet. Most importantly, the BJP did not fight on Hindutva (anyways the last election on Hindutva was 1993) and supposedly there was no Muslim consolidation against it. Then why could it not convert the opportunity to growth?
Sadly, I am forced to agree with Nazarwala, whose predictions on UP since 2007 have been uncannily on mark. It was Nazarwala who had forecast a Maya victory in 2007, Congress’s resurgence in 2009 and SP’s victory in 2012. It was he who wrote that the BJP’s vanvaas will continue in Uttar Pradesh and its tally fall below its 2007 score. And the reason as per him – the BJP cheated the people of UP with its promise of Ram Temple at Ayodhya and the people are punishing it for having reneged on its promise. If one asks, why UP and not the rest of India, my answer shall be two fold – One, the states where BJP grew in the early 1990s (other than its strongholds of Delhi, MP, HP and Rajasthan) were Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, West Bengal, Karnataka, Assam, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala. Of these, only Gujarat has consistently voted for the BJP and Karnataka saw decline of the party for about 10 years before it wrested power in 2007. In all the other states, the party has reduced and the decline is yet to be arrested. Secondly, it was UP where the BJP’s rise had been the most meteoric, from 11% in 1990 to 33% in 1993. It goes without saying that the decline should follow the same trajectory.
For all of BJP’s campaign sans Hindutva, the Muslims still gravitated to the SP. Hence, it should put to rest the vapid theory propagated by the ELM that polarization works against the BJP. It lost when it supposedly ran a communal CD based campaign in 2007 (which it disowned), it lost when Varun Gandhi became the new Narendra Modi for the ELM in 2009 and it lost when even the riots of Mau, Bareilley and Moradabad were not raised these elections.
Perhaps the BJP will do good to take a leaf out of the victor’s book and offer an apology to those millions which it hoodwinked in the name of the Ram temple at Ayodhya. Let it begin with LK Advani saying sorry to those who braved all odds to be a part of the yatra and become Kar Sevaks. Let the RSS apologise for having jettisoned its ideology to help the BJP cling to power by any means. Let the VHP apologise to those who it let down. Let them apologise to those sadhus and sants who came under their umbrella and braved bullets to fulfill their dream of reclaiming that hallowed land at Ayodhya. And last but not the least, let them apologise to the families of those martyrs who sacrificed their lives in their vain search to reclaim the temple of our Lord.
