1990.
It was a pleasant January evening. A solitary loudspeaker hung carelessly on a
delicate pole, on the Jharsuguda parade ground, blared forth on the scheduled visit
of Shri LK Advani at 5:30 pm the next day. Strangely, there was no other
visible sign of this impeding visit by a VIP – no banners, no posters, no
welcome arches. The day came; 5:30 became 6, then 7, then 8 and then 9. No
sign of the leader nor any sign of a crowd. Had the leader had given the town
a miss because of the lack of crowds?
Then,
the calmness of that balmy night was broken by wailing of a cavalcade. I rushed out just in time to make out the
figure of a man with a shiny pate greeting people through his car window. In moments, the entire parade ground was packed to capacity,
amazing when you consider the time of the day, the clear lack of mobilisation
of people, and most critically, the absence of a half decent BJP party
apparatus in the town.
But,
the BJP lost the state elections which followed Advani’s visit.
Circa
February 1998. Atal Bihari was to visit the town. He was then known as the 13
day Prime Minister and more importantly, the man India awaited. BJP had a
strong presence now, bolstered even more by an alliance with the fledgling Biju
Janata Dal. The town wore a festive look – festoons, arches, banners abound,
the party apparatus was at full play; plying people by truckloads for the
rally. Vajpayee came and addressed the
crowd in the same parade ground – less than a third filled!
This
lack of crowds did not impact the vote. BJP won both the state and
parliamentary elections from the said constituency.
How
are these decades old experiences relevant today? They are relevant because
even today, crowds may not translate into votes. In 1990, a curious public came
to see a person who was unabashedly articulating the Hindu angst. They came, they
saw, maybe they heard. But, then all went away and voted they way they used to
vote.
Today,
the BJP seems to run the risk of believing that the battle for Delhi is already
won. After all, does Narendra Modi not attract unprecedented crowds even in
areas where the BJP is not strong? True, he does. But how do we know that the
crowds actually will translate into votes?
Swapan
Dasgupta was once asked to comment on a very impressive BJP rally in Kerala. He
said ‘the number of people present in the rally is precisely the number of
voters for the BJP’. Maybe Swapan was
being a little snarky, but the truth of his comment cannot be denied. Today,
the BJP has gambled on attracting voters through a spectacle. These rallies,
with all due respect to people attending them, are huge event management
exercises, where people are mobilised from length and breadth of the state.
This is not at all to say that the crowds comprise of people who get paid to
attend them. On the contrary, they do comprise largely of BJP supporters sold
on the dream of Modi delivering India from the evil UPA. The moot point to ponder here is whether
those rallies are a confluence of the converted or if they do attract those atheists
who come, see, hear, get converted and develop an evangelical zeal?
In
1993, the BJP was riding high. Its stock in the Hindi heartland was particularly
soaring post the reclamation of Ramjanmabhoomi only months back. With a swagger in
their steps, BJP leaders went around claiming that unlike other parties, they
had delivered what they promised. It seemed that victory in the 5 state
assemblies were a given. Aaj Paanch
Pradesh, kal poora desh, went the slogan. But, the results were something different,
very different. The BJP lost Madhya Pradesh and Himachal while winning Delhi
and only narrowly scraping through in Rajasthan. The shocker though was the party’s
loss in UP where it lost around 45 seats despite a 3% jump in its votes. Not
only were the 1993 losses were a body blow to political Hindutva, they
reinforced the understanding that public passion, unless channelized effectively,
is no match to a well oiled party machinery.
Today,
while there is a visible feeling of disgust with the UPA, there still does not
seem to be a corresponding goodwill for the BJP. And why should there be? In
the last decade, the BJP has not acted like if it were indeed willing to confront
the UPA and stand for the common man. Except for some token protest in
television studios and ineffectual grandstanding in the parliament, the BJP as
an opposition party has been invisible. Can
the support for Modi, even if as large as it is being made out to be, prevail
over voter reluctance to opt for an insipid BJP?
For
the sake of the Nation, this Government needs to go and if Narendra Modi is the
vehicle of this deliverance then by all means should Narendra Modi win. But,
the BJP will need to do much more than to simply hope that crowds in rallies
are a sure shot indicator of voter preferences.
