The Victory shall not be undermined

Not very surprisingly, the fiberal establishment, yet to come to terms with the scale of Modi’s victory, has sought to undermine its legitimacy by focusing on the BJP’s vote share of 31%, claiming that 7 in 10 Indians voted against Narendra Modi. 

Well, in that case, who has the mandate, the Congress with its 19%? Or the BSP with its 4.5%? Or is the darling AAP with its 2%? Even factually, quoting 31% is incorrect as the BJP fought the elections in partnership with other parties, the total vote share of all of them coming close to 40% 

Leaving the overall NDA voteshare apart for a moment, the argument of 31% not mirroring National sentiments need to be examined on its own merits. Worldwide, there are only that many forms of representative democracy and hence it is not difficult to analyse on what each one of them mean as far as elections are concerned: 

1. Westminster model – Under the ‘First past the post’ system followed by the UK and most of its erstwhile colonies, the person securing the highest number of votes in a given constituency of voters is declared elected. The percentage of votes scored is immaterial here 
2. Proportionate representation – Each of the recognized political entities managing to secure a minimum percentage of the total votes cast (5% in most countries), get proportionate quota of seats in the legislature. Most of the time, parties fighting these elections do so in form of a list of candidates, the serial number for each of them, representing the choice of the party in case it managed to secure the minimum voteshare. For example, Nelson Mandela used to be number 1 in the list of ANC in South African elections and was deemed elected the moment ANC touched the threshold for representation. 
3. Run off polls – A derivative of the first past the post system, in case none of the candidates secure a bare majority of the votes, the top two candidates get into another round of run off polls so that at least one has a majority of votes behind him. However, most of the countries following this system restrict it to the top posts alone, preferring other forms of representation for rest of the legislature 
4. Electoral college – Most famously being used in American Presidential Polls, the candidate securing highest number of votes in a state generally is awarded all the electoral votes from that state. Hence, the candidate winning the President’s election may not necessarily be backed by popular vote. Two such incidents in the twentieth century were the victory of John Kennedy over Richard Nixon in 1960 and the victory of George Bush over Albert Gore in 2000, when both the winners had in a way, been rejected by the majority of voters. Usage of term ‘rejected’ is not incorrect here as under a two party system, a vote for one of them is a rejection of the other. 
5. Preference Votes – A complex system where the elector is required to mark candidates in order of preference. India follows this system in elections for the President and for the Rajya Sabha. A highly complex system, followed by very few countries of the world. 

In case India had opted for any of the other 4 systems, the results from these elections would have remained the same or even more skewed as under the proportionate representation, seats in the Parliament would have got split between the BJP and the Congress alone as no other party reached the minimum threshold of 5% of popular votes. In such a scenario, BJP would have won some 360 seats, i.e., 65% of seats in the Lok sabha. Even if the threshold were lowered to around 2%, we would still have had the BJP close to a majority as the cumulative vote share of the 10 parties reaching 2% is only around 75%. This would mean that the BJP’s 33.5% would get inflated to 42%. What would have been striking is that the fiberal cry for diversity would have been thoroughly defeated with parties like their favorite parties like the BJD, JDU, RJD, CPI and even the NCP would have failed to win any seat at all. One wonders what their reaction would be if they realised that their favorites from J&K, the PDP and the NC and for that matter, none of the regional parties from the North East, or even from Punjab and Haryana and their secular mascots like the IUML, MIM and AIUDF would have never won enough votes to merit a seat under this system.

In case of run-off, well, for the Prime Minister’s post, it would have been a no-contest in between Modi and Rahul Gandhi. For the constituencies, too, results may not have been very different. Currently, the BJP/NDA won over 50% votes in Goa, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Nagaland, Daman & Diu and Madhya Pradesh, winning 142 of the 152 seats in the offing. With over 50% of the votes, the results would hardly have been any different. In the second category are states like Delhi, Chhattisgarh, Arunachal Pradesh, Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Andaman & Nicobar, where it has won over 46%-48% of votes and 20 of the 22 seats. In the third category are states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Jharkhand and Chandigarh where it has won over 42% of votes and 135 of the 163 seats up for picks. Is it really a stretch to imagine that a run-off would not have resulted in the BJP making up the 2% - 8% gap in votes, when its next competitor has barely scored in the range of 25% - 35%? 

With the above sufficing to provide a majority of 297 to the BJP/NDA, bonus would have been the states of West Bengal, Orissa and Tamil Nadu where in spite of clocking 17% to 21% votes, the BJP had to remain content with only 4 out of a 102 seats. In addition would be seats from Assam, Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab and Andhra where with an around 35% votes, the party would have been assured of some seats, though probably not in the same quantum as of now. 

Overall, even under the run-off system, the BJP majority would have been very secure. 

In a system of Electoral college, the BJP/NDA would have won all the seats in all the States and Union Territories of India, barring Lakshadweep, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim, Tripura, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Manipur, cumulatively accounting for 128 seats. The NDA with 415 seats would have surpassed the 1984 tally of the Congress. 

Lastly, under the preferential voting system, it is indeed more difficult to predict the outcome. But here too, the outcome would not have differed substantially in those states with 152 seats where the NDA won over 50% of popular vote and those states with 185 seats where it won over 40% of the votes. On the other hand, it is not beyond comprehension that large chunks of those voting for the AIADMK, the BJD and the Trinamool would have chosen the BJP as their second preference. 

While the above figures adress the ‘If….’ pipedreams of those still unreconciled with the Modi victory, a deeper question mark arises on the fiberal commitment to democracy only if the outcome suits them. No party, in any General Elections in India has even touched the 50% threshold of popular vote, with the 49.01% scored by the Congress in 1984 being the highest ever till date. Closer in time, the 2004 elections, the Congress barely had around 26% votes, the UPA some 35%. One does not recall the fiberals questioning the legitimacy of the Congress/UPA. On the contrary, the same set of people praised the Indian voters sky high for their ‘maturity’. Even in 2009, the Congress had a 28% vote share, the UPA some 37.22%. In both these elections, the ruling dispensation had a much lower vote share than the current NDA vote share of around 40%, but these worthies did not claim at any that more Indians had rejected than voted for the Congress/UPA. 

People with slightly longer memories may recall that when the NDA had constituted the Constitution Review Committee, the fiberal classes had raged against what they saw as the RSS project of replacing the Westminster model with a Presidential and proportional representation system, wherein faces RSS apparatchiks would dominate the ‘list’. Given their outrage then, it is all the more funny to see them raise a cry for proportional representation only because their hate figure no 1 has secured a majority on his own. 

There is no fool proof system of electing representatives but till a better alternative is found, one must respect the outcome under the system which is in force. In seeking to question the legitimacy of Modi, the fiberals are only reinforcing their image of churlish creatures, who are unable to come to terms with electorate’s verdict.