Jiski Jitni Sankhya Bhari, uski utni hissedari!
A couple of decades ago, when a fledgling Bahujan Samaj Party, under the leadership of the irascible Kanshi Ram popularized the above slogan, the establishment was shocked with its crudity. While the idiom could not be truer than in a democracy, i.e., a group should command political power in proportion to its strength, the brazen truth of demography dictating democracy was a little tough for the genteel soul to digest.
Much water having flown down the Ganga over these years, barely anyone in India, sophisticated pollsters included, even feigns to deny the criticality of group based voting predisposition amongst the electorate.
However, the optimist believes that we are still an evolving democracy and with voter maturity, we will purge ourselves of evils plaguing us. Believes the optimist - soon there will be a day when the voter votes not on basis of his/her caste, gender, religion or language but only on the basis of quality of the candidate and the agenda offered. Only, this sounds somewhat like a Godman painting a picture of the Promised Land to the faithful. And like what most Godmen promise, such visions could be nothing more than mere pipedreams!
The USA is one of the world’s oldest and arguably amongst the most evolved democracy, with even the candidates being chosen by the people before they appear on the ballot! However, an analysis of the voting patterns in the recent Presidential polls give much reason to suspect if the average American is any different from an average Indian, as far as voting proclivities are concerned.
There has been lot of celebrations around the belief that Obama managed to build a rainbow coalition of the minorities which propelled him to power. Even more has been made of the belief that the GOP represents a fossilized world view and has lost confidence of those who will dominate the US of tomorrow. Many headlines have been devoted on how Obama won support of the Hispanics, the Blacks, the Asians, the LGBT, the young and the women. This assertion is a little problematic for the last three are umbrella categories and encompass the first three ethnic groups. But let us have a look at the data before arriving at any conclusion:
Voter Group Obama Romney
Male 45% 53%
Female 55% 44%
White 39% 59%
Blacks 93% 06%
Latinos 71% 27%
Asians 73% 26%
White Men 35% 62%
White Women 42% 56%
Black Men 87% 11%
Black Women 96% 03%
Latino Men 65% 33%
Latino Women 76% 23%
Young White Voters 44% 51%
Young Black Voters 91% 08%
Young Latino Voters 74% 23%
One can wonder as to why has the White voter been condemned for his inclination to vote for the GOP while his Black counterpart spared even though the latter has displayed its bias in much stronger terms?
Again, the GOP has been condemned for its inability to attract Latinos. However, is it really in the National interest of the US to host illegal immigrants make it both easy and lucrative for them to get their ilk in the country? Why should the American citizen of Hispanic origin have any sympathy with aliens who have slipped in the US surreptitiously and have no legal right on the country? We can only imagine the outcome of a situation where Muslims vote for those who promise regularization of Bangladeshis, residing illegally in our country. We saw a trailer of the outcome of such feelings only a couple of months back and certainly have no appetite to sit through the entire spectacle
The moot point from the US elections is that identity based politics and voter management have given the mandate in favor of a man who may not necessarily represent the majority opinion or at least the opinion of the dominant ethnic group of the country. In a country which is still predominantly white, the given race based voting percentages would normally have meant a majority or a near majority for the Romney, basis the white votes alone. However, given tat the minorities seem to have voted in numbers disproportionate to their share in population, Obama’s vote share is significantly higher than what it would have been in a situation where group voting patterns would have been representative of their respective populations.
How much different is Obama’s victory then, when compared to victories of many parties in Indian elections? Like here, in US too, flocks voted for Obama basis his race, his background, his party, his likeability and because one of their idols campaigned for him, performance or the lack of it was a secondary concern! A pointer, unemployment amongst the Blacks never dipped below 10%. It did nothing to allay their love for the incumbent. This is not to say that the GOP offered a great alternative of that Obama was not a deserving candidate at all. The only point to be noted is that the race of the voter seemed to have played the deciding role on which of these two candidates was voted for, in a country which is supposedly a much more evolved democracy that India is.
So, the late Kanshi Ram was right yet again though in a convoluted way. Jitni jiski sankhya bhari….
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