Are We All Biharis Now?

Lest I be taken for a sourpuss, let me congratulate the JDU-BJP alliance on its spectacular victory in Bihar Assembly polls. Greater congratulations still, for the populace of Bihar, which rewarded performance over rhetoric and rejected those who promised a journey to the ‘olden days’.

Certainly, 206 out of 243 is an overwhelming mandate, beaten only by Congress (I)’s 404 out of 514 in 1984 and the SSP/SDF’s 32/32 in Sikkim, over many elections. There is yet again no doubt that the Bihar elections revolved, at least for the ELM, around one person, Nitish Kumar and with his re-victory, he is now seen as a potential Prime Ministerial candidate of the NDA in 2014. While it can be argued that the BJP’s gains in these elections have been more spectacular, i.e., a gain of 36 over the 55 seats it held previously, the ELM has been reluctant to credit the BJP for this gain and insist that this is a rub-off effect of Nitish’s glory. It, however, does not explain on why the Sun, i.e., (Nitish and JDU) have shone less brightly than the moon (the BJP in this case)

However, moving ahead of the self congratulatory posturing of the victors, it will do good to all of us to analyze and accept that while by no means ambiguous, the Nitish/NDA victory in these elections owes much to the vagaries of our ‘First past the post’ electoral system rather than any profound change in the political preferences of the voting public. Let us run through a few figures here:

·    General Elections 1984 (63.56% polling); Congress (I) 404 of 514 seats with a vote share of 49.1%

·    Assembly Polls Bihar 2000 (62.57% polling); BJP+Samata Party+JDU - 122 of 324 seats with a Vote share of 29.76%. RJD 124 seats with 28.24% vote share.

·    General Elections 2004 (Bihar only) 58.02% polling; NDA – 11 seats with 36.13% of votes; RJD+LJP – 29 seats with 46.68% of votes

·    Assembly Polls Bihar 2005 (46.50% polling); BJP + JDU – 25.52%; No of seats – 92; RJD – 25.07% & 75 seats while LJP + Congress (I) 17.62% and 39 seats

·    Assembly Re Polls Bihar 2005 (45.85% polling); BJP + JDU – 143 seats with 36.11% vote share. RJD+Congress+NCP 64 seats with 30.33% vote share

·    Assembly polls West Bengal 2006 (81.97% polling) - Left Front 227 out of 294 seats with 49.47% vote share. Congress – 21 seats with 14.71% vote share and the TMC 30 seats with 26.64% vote share

·    General Elections 2009 (Bihar only) NDA – 32 seats with 36.13% of votes; RJD+LJP – 4 seats with 28.03% of votes

·   Assembly Polls Bihar 2010 (52% polling), NDA – 206 seats with 39.07% of votes, RJD+LJP – 25 seats with 25.59% of votes

Thus, we see that the NDA, with only a 3.14% increase in vote share registered an increase of 63 seats.  It underlines that while the magnitude of NDA’s victory is amazing, the same is not backed by voting preferences of the public. For that matter, BJP’s victories in Gujarat have been on a vote share of around 50% but the number of seats won has hovered around 2/3rds. The Left Front victory in Bengal (2006) was on similar lines, around 3/4^th of seats backed by around 50% of popular vote. 

This is not the first time that we have noticed the vagaries of our existing electoral system. The BJP won around 34% of votes in the 1993 Uttar Pradesh polls, as compared to around 28% share of the SP-BSP combine but both ended with 177 seats each. More recently, in 2009 General Elections, the Congress gained around 2.5% vote share but that gain got translated in 63 additional Lok Sabha seats. It is a sense of déjà vu when we find the ELM getting breathless commending Nitish’s victory today. The same scenes and statements got bandied around when the UPA won in 2009 – Defeat of communalism, rejection of divisive politics, vote for development, so on and so forth.

While getting carried away in our self-exaltations comes naturally to us Indians, NDA in general and Nitish in particular, will do good to acknowledge a few points.

·    The Bihar vote is certainly a vote for development but more importantly, it is a sign of growing disenchantment with the RJD-LJP combine which experienced a significant decline of around 8%-10% of votes, even when accounting for the fact that these parties fought the last polls separately. In a way, while being a positive vote for NDA, it is a stronger repudiation of the RJD-LJP combine

·    That said, they still command loyalty of a quarter of voting population, and as West Bengal has shown, a down politician is not an out politician. It may take only a small event but before one knows, the NDA might be staring at serious opposition again

·    In spite of the many positives of the Nitish-Modi government and real fears of the state going back to the RJD, there wasn’t any strong wave of people coming out and voting for the NDA to reward it, a phenomenon which contrasts badly with 2000, when scared of an NDA victory, the Muslim and Yadav communities voted in droves and shored up the polling percentage. Hence, while Nitish may be appreciated, it is not necessary that he would be aptly supported by people in face of a determined opposition

·   Let not the BJP gloat over its ‘better strike rate’. Much of this victory, more pronouncedly in the Seemanchal region, owes to the absence of tactical voting by Muslims, who while not voting for the BJP, did not vote tactically to defeat its candidates. BJP’s base remained where it was and unlike in Orissa, where it managed to retain its base even after BJD’s termination of their alliance, it remains to be seen if it can display that much tenacity when Nitish does a Naveen

·    The NDA stands further weakened as the stake of JDU in continuing with an alliance with the BJP has vanished now. If the JDU remains in the NDA, it will have more to do with the search for relevance for leaders like Sharad Yadav and the rump of George Fernandes’s followers, rather than Nitish’s need for the BJP

·   While the ELM has all along been advising the BJP to completely break off from Hindutva and points to Bihar as a symbol of India fed up with identity politics, it fails to mention that Hindutva has been conspicuous by its absence in BJP campaigns right from 1995 though with a notable exception of Gujarat 2002 polls. Without any defining identity or program, the BJP is reduced to merely an electoral machine of diminishing capability and it will be reduced to a Regional party, somewhat larger than Jana Sangh in its hey-days

·   Most importantly, both the BJP and the JDU have not jettisoned caste. Not only has Nitish managed to create a solid support base among non Yadav OBCs and non Pasi Dalits, his championing of minority causes has seen the so called Pasmanda Muslims swearing by him. Likewise, the BJP has silently but resolutely courted the Upper Caste and landed gentry in Bihar. Other than caste, while Nitish has very certainly managed to make Bihar a much safer place to be in, his courting of Anand Mohan Singh (who ultimately supported Congress), Taslimuddin and the presence of numerous history-sheeters in the winners' list of both the JDU and the BJP give credence to the fact that the pragmatic Nitish realises that it will be many more years, if and if indeed, voters jettison caste and other parochial considerations.

Yet again, the purpose of this write-up was not to belittle the NDA's victory in Bihar. The victory is heartening and does indicate that the voters are turning their back on those whose only contribution is to act as promoters/spokespersons of a particular community. After all, the same voter did repose faith time and again in the Laloo brand of politics even as he saw Bihar descending into an abyss. Fortunately, the winners seem to have their feet more firmly on ground as compared to the ELM which seems to be reading a little too much in the victor's win.